Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Excellent analysis of Russian foreign policy

Reading material:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18462813

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18642032

As an observer of the world, much of which is distressing to me … the world does seem to be going to hell in a hand-basket rather rapidly … it is hard not to notice what is going on in Syria.

Of course, what can other countries do? Not much because, as usual, there are forces at work that are more important to some key people than the tragedy that is going on in Syria. Not that these forces are not understandable, because they are quite understandable.

In the first article, which is probably the best explanation of why the current Russian government is acting the way it is, Moscow under Putin does not want to see any precedent set in international relations that has it endorsing the interference with the internal sovereignty under some nebulous “responsibility to protect” “civilians.” IF Putin did, then the same concept possibly could be applied to restive populations in Russia and that would never do.

I think that one of the hardest things to explain to Americans is that the rest of the world just doesn’t think like Americans do. And because people in different countries view things from entirely different perspectives, things that are objectionable in the US are relatively acceptable in other countries. (see Horsemeat).

In addition, different countries are ruled/governed in different ways. Most countries are held to different standards. Unfortunately, what is acceptable in the US (and a lot of countries based on the European Occidental Judeo-Christian model) is not always acceptable in other countries and vice-versa.

One must remember that all countries act in what they perceive to be their own best interest. In that sense, the people who run those countries are no different than any other human on the planet. How they arrive at what they perceive to be their own best interest often will be baffling to someone not steeped in the culture and history of the particular country’s leadership but in the end, they will be doing what they perceive to be right and in their best interest.

Such is the case with what Moscow is doing in Syria … and also what Iran is doing in Syria. Of course, you could also say what the Turks and the Saudis and the other Arabian Peninsula nations who have taken side with the rebels.

The classic example of this, to me, is Operation Desert Storm. While it probably was in the best interest of world had the US-led coalition gone on to Baghdad and taken out Saddam Hussein in 1991, it couldn’t happen because a large chunk of the coalition’s fighters were Arab monarchs and dictators. They did not want to see the U.S. go around knocking off sovereign heads of state, even if they were despicable tyrants who threatened what passes for regional peace in that part of the world. If the U.S. could do it to Iraq … well, they could do it to the other Arab monarchies and dictators. That they were determined was not going to happen and the Americans, not being their usually totally stupid selves, realized that going north of the Euphrates River and on to Baghdad was a line the coalition could not pass. We could romp and stomp through the relatively uninhabited portions of southern Iraq in pursuit of the forces that held Kuwait and those that supported them. As it was, we pushed the limits of the envelope to restore the government of Kuwait far beyond what that relatively simple mission could have taken. Granted the fight would have been much bloodier for the coalition, but the result would have been the same in the end. However, going into the heartland of Iraq would be a bridge too far for the Arab allies and the European forces very likely would have found their erstwhile allies turning their coats and becoming hostiles on their flanks and in their rear. Not a good situation at all.

So, as you watch the Russians ship arms and equipment to Syria in the midst of sanctions and civil war, remember: Moscow is doing it because it sees it as in its best interest to be doing so.

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