Keeping records in perspective

Arctic sea ice set to hit record low

Interesting story about the annual melt of the Arctic sea ice pack, but I am not sure that the headline or the premise about it really means much.

Synopsis of the story: Taken from satellite imagery, it seems that this summer’s artic sea ice pack melt has significantly reduced it from what it was just a few years ago. It seems that global climate change could be responsible.

Of course, the implication is that the change is due to anthropomorphic causes. Oopsie. That is a leap of faith that really is not justified by the facts at hand. Now, please understand, I am not contesting that the climate might be changing. In fact, I will just about guarantee it is changing. I just don’t buy off on the argument that is all the fault of humans and because the U.S. is the richest and most consumer driven country that it is entirely  its fault. (I will back this up in a second).

Ok, to me the operative point in the above article when it talks about hitting a record low it is only dealing with a period from 1979 (when they started taking pictures from satellites orbiting the earth) until 2012. Let me get my calculator out: That is a grand total of 33 years … and the world is how old? Four billion years, you say, and just 15,000 years ago the ice pack extended all the way down to somewhere around New York City … and then some thousands, or is it millions, of years ago, there was barely any ice at all. Hmm, some record.

Actually, I was thinking about it. I have a damaged heart (about 25 percent of it doesn’t work anymore) and I thought about putting it in that sort of perspective. It is like taking my pulse, and then taking it again five seconds later, and then again a few seconds later and then trying to tell me how my heart is fairing. Good try, but bad information. Oh, yeah, an EKG only takes a minute or so, but that is only a snapshot and your cardiologist (you do have one don’t you?) will tell you that is all it is. If they really want to know what is going on they have to monitor you for a few months or so, and take lots of pictures over time and maybe go in a do a little exploring with cameras and the like. But just looking at pictures taken over a few seconds will not necessarily tell them the whole story.

So, while I have no doubt my heart is damaged, I know that it is monitored 24/7 and I report the results of that monitoring every month or so. Still, that doesn’t tell the doctor what is going on inside my heart, or its muscles or its arteries. It just gives him something to compare against. It doesn’t tell him when it is going to finally say: “Ok, I’m done. I’m going to stop working now.” No test is going to tell him, or me, that.

Interestingly enough, despite my having a host of risk factors, no doctor can tell you precisely which one triggered my heart disease. Sorry, they just know that statistically if you do x, y or c or you don’t do a, b or z, then they are more likely to find blocked arteries in your body and other health problems. Of course, statistically, you can NOT do x, y or c and do a, b or z, and you still can have heart problems. Amazing how that works. Maybe we humans ain’t all that smart after all.

Now, it seems that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are one of the biggest culprits in the anthropomorphic climate change models. What would you say if some scientists told you that the US is pumping out less CO2 now than it was 20 years ago?

US CO2 emissions at 20 year low

My goodness, maybe the US has been doing something right after all.

However, my point would be that if the US has reduced its carbon footprint so much and climate change still is happening doesn’t that call into question the current causes of climate change? I ain’t no scientist but it would seem to me that the evidence would point that way. You know, of course, that it is just possible that there are other, non-human-related, factors at play here.

I do get tired of our hubris that we think that just because we think, then the world must revolve around us. Just because we seem to be sentient, that we are in control.

As my old math teacher used to say: Apples and Oranges.

Maybe we need to stop thinking that we are in control and think more about coping with reality. I do that on a daily basis … not always fun, but it has kept me alive longer than the worst prognoses said I would live. And that makes me happy.

Of course, you can think you are in control. That is all right. You do have the right to think silly thoughts.