More on conspiracy theories

It always amazes me when people deny they believe in any conspiracy when they say “But I don’t think it happened that way.”

Time out! If you don’t believe something happened the way that it has been explained, then the burden sort of falls on you to come up with an alternate explanation to solve the mystery. Either it was an act of God, or humans did it and that means a conspiracy of some sort to execute and cover-up the real explanation.

For example, over the years, I have read or seen a host of books, documentaries, movies, etc., or in some cases actually interviewed people with first-hand knowledge of the events on Dealy Plaza on Nov. 23, 1963. And yes, while it is possible that Lee Harvey Oswald was not the shooter, there remains no credible alternative explanation for those events. Oh, I know about the commission in that found the tape that allegedly recorded a fourth shot and I have interviewed people who had statements from people who said there was someone on the grassy knoll. I also have seen people debunk the magic bullet mystery. So, my final point is, does it really matter? No. Because nothing we do now will either bring back John Kennedy or change the events of that day (or all the history up to now).

What about the controversy over the President’s birth certificate? It doesn’t matter. It really doesn’t unless you really want to screw up the country, which if you get the president declared ineligible, and therefore nullify everything he has done for the last three and half years, will happen … in spades.

Hell, he may have been born in Kenya or somewhere else in the Third World, but it doesn’t matter now, and it is time to get over it.

Same thing with the people who say the “official” and “unofficial” reports that explain how the events unfolded on Sept. 11, 2001, can’t be true. There is no way that 19 ragheads could cause that much damage and kill that many people. Yes, there is … and it happened.

Oh, you say, but I am just saying I don’t believe the official explanation. It leaves too many questions unanswered. Then provide your own beyond a reasonable doubt, otherwise, let it lie.

The problem with those who reject these explanations, as I said before, is that the burden then falls on you to come up with a working alternate explanation. Now, it gets really fun when you do that, because you have to explain away the hijackings, or change their backers somehow from the people who have said they were the organizers and planners, and in one case, the hijacker who screwed up and got himself arrested two months before the operation took place.

Then, since the aircraft didn’t significantly damage two nearly forty-year-old buildings, and fires and other debris from the collapsing towers didn’t trigger the collapse of a third building, one is left with having to come up with an alternative. You need to develop one that a) creates the conditions that will allow the buildings to collapse, b) has a reasonable possibility for it being executed without detection, c) is backed by some group that has the money and the resources to do the job, d) has the ability to sway a whole slew of people to produce multiple products that ignore the explanation of the real cause, e) has a damn good reason to go out on a limb to make it happen, f) and do this under the spotlight of every media organization in the world without anyone on the team – from top to bottom – ever letting on.

I will admit that there probably are  gaping holes in the 9/11 Commission report, but I am willing to bet that they got most of the facts right. Just as I know there are holes in the Warren Commission report, but in the end, I suspect that they got the facts basically right.

This basically holds true for all conspiracies.

Don’t get me started on the military pulling off an operation of this magnitude, even a rogue group of Special Operations folks. The movies make them look like miracle workers … and I won’t deny that they are pretty damn good, but they still put their pants on the same way the rest of do and have to tie their shoelaces just like anyone else and are just as prone to have Mr. Murphy riding on their shoulders as anyone else. There has never been a military operation at any time that went off without a hitch.

The best one of those has to have been the Israeli raid on Entebbe to rescue a planeload of hostages, which succeeded. However, it still left one person behind, had one rescuer KIA and basically everybody knew about it and who did it within 24 hours.

Of course, I could be stupid, blind and ignorant and maybe all those movie magical toys do exist and there is some super-secret organization that kills all its members who might leak any information about its operations when they come back.

You believe that? Well, then look at the book just released on the takedown of Osama bin Laden. That is my exhibit No. 1.

Of course it was the weather

Weather forecast forces move indoors

Venue change goes from seating for 74,000 to 21,000

I love politics. If you believe that Thursday night’s big night for President Obama was moved inside to the arena where the rest of the Democratic National Convention is being held, instead of the football stadium where the NFL’s Carolina Panthers play, because it might rain, well … I will leave you to your delusions.

Of course that is not the reason, and yes, of course, the reason is that the Democrats were having a hard time coming up with enough people to fill the stadium to capacity … and every empty seat was going to be pointed out by the Republicans as evidence of the president’s slipping popularity.

This is an argument as old as … I don’t know, but it seems as old as time itself. Politicians always, given the choice, are going to play to a picked and packed house if they can arrange it. It is a matter of perspective.

For example, during World War II, the Germans bombed London, England, and as a result of one of those air raids during the Blitz as it was called, the building that housed Britain’s House of Commons was severely damaged and had to be rebuilt. Under the directions of Prime Minister Winston S. Churchill, probably one of the most astute politicians of his day and a statesman of the first order, when the House chamber was rebuilt for some reason there wasn’t enough room on the benches for all the members of Parliament to sit.

Of course, Americans who watch coverage of its Congress on the CSPAN cable network are used to seeing a sea of empty seats in the chambers when CSPAN is showing what is going on in each house. A lot of Americans, thusly, get the impression that their representatives are being remiss at their jobs and some fail to realize that the great speeches given on the floors of our legislature usually are given to nearly empty audiences.

Churchill, being the clever politician he was, solved this problem. By making it impossible to seat all the members of Parliament at one time (in fact, leaving a vast number stuck outside) he recognized that the movie and television cameras that would be recording events in the chamber always would have the leaders playing to a packed house. Packed houses being better at convincing the viewing public that not only was their business being attended to, but that a rousing debate was being conducted. Actually it was all part of Kabuki Theater to make people believe that was happening.

So are the speeches at the Democratic National Convention on Sept. 6. They too are a form of Kabuki Theater. It is better to play to a packed house (even if it is smaller) than to play to a partially empty stadium (even if it has twice as many people there).

Isn’t politics wonderful?

We band of brothers

Capt. Wales' support network
The United Kingdom’s Prince Harry probably already knows he is not a normal human being, but he needs to work on it a bit.
Still, from a trooper standpoint, Capt. Harry Wales has burnished his credentials a bit: He is a trooper in more ways than one. Not only is he a qualified armor officer, but now – like his big brother – is a qualified helicopter pilot (although one with Cavalry spurs of an AH-64 pilot). I will say this for the Wales brothers; they seem to be good leaders and good flyers.
Now, for Capt. Wales’ little dustup in Las Vegas: What was it they say about Vegas – “What plays in Vegas, stays in Vegas” – well, in this case (as in most actually) it doesn’t.
Ok, he is a single 28-year-old Army officer with lots of money to spend. You expect him to act like monk or something? However, being humanly rowdy, his fellow troopers can appreciate his hijinks and his hijinks are something of a tradition in the British army.
One of my favorite authors, John Masters, was a former British brigade commander who rose up in the Gurkha regiments during the late stages of the British Raj in India and during World War II. Read any of his books on British army life, or his autobiography, and you will find such hijinks sprinkled throughout the life in a British officers’ mess (off duty time). It seems it is part of the ritual.
Given the type of life soldiers live, such reaffirmations of being alive take on a special meaning that is difficult, if not impossible, to explain to people who haven’t “been there.” However, to those who have, then they know a solidarity that makes soldiers (of all uniforms) truly a band of brothers. Prince Harry has expanded his “band” to encompass a multitude and I have no doubt that were he to lead a charge, there would be many followers.
In a sense, that is what leadership is all about. Making contact with your followers and getting them to identify with you enough that they will follow you into Hell and back.
(Of course, I wouldn’t recommend such hijinks in today’s environment of cellphone cameras and the internet. Too many people just won’t understand when it inevitably gets out.)
Shakespeare put it best in Henry the Fifth (You know Harry is another version of Henry):
Henry V's Crispen Day Speech
“But we in it shall be remembered-
    We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
    For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
    Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
    This day shall gentle his condition;
    And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
    Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
    And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
    That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.”

Keeping records in perspective

Arctic sea ice set to hit record low

Interesting story about the annual melt of the Arctic sea ice pack, but I am not sure that the headline or the premise about it really means much.

Synopsis of the story: Taken from satellite imagery, it seems that this summer’s artic sea ice pack melt has significantly reduced it from what it was just a few years ago. It seems that global climate change could be responsible.

Of course, the implication is that the change is due to anthropomorphic causes. Oopsie. That is a leap of faith that really is not justified by the facts at hand. Now, please understand, I am not contesting that the climate might be changing. In fact, I will just about guarantee it is changing. I just don’t buy off on the argument that is all the fault of humans and because the U.S. is the richest and most consumer driven country that it is entirely  its fault. (I will back this up in a second).

Ok, to me the operative point in the above article when it talks about hitting a record low it is only dealing with a period from 1979 (when they started taking pictures from satellites orbiting the earth) until 2012. Let me get my calculator out: That is a grand total of 33 years … and the world is how old? Four billion years, you say, and just 15,000 years ago the ice pack extended all the way down to somewhere around New York City … and then some thousands, or is it millions, of years ago, there was barely any ice at all. Hmm, some record.

Actually, I was thinking about it. I have a damaged heart (about 25 percent of it doesn’t work anymore) and I thought about putting it in that sort of perspective. It is like taking my pulse, and then taking it again five seconds later, and then again a few seconds later and then trying to tell me how my heart is fairing. Good try, but bad information. Oh, yeah, an EKG only takes a minute or so, but that is only a snapshot and your cardiologist (you do have one don’t you?) will tell you that is all it is. If they really want to know what is going on they have to monitor you for a few months or so, and take lots of pictures over time and maybe go in a do a little exploring with cameras and the like. But just looking at pictures taken over a few seconds will not necessarily tell them the whole story.

So, while I have no doubt my heart is damaged, I know that it is monitored 24/7 and I report the results of that monitoring every month or so. Still, that doesn’t tell the doctor what is going on inside my heart, or its muscles or its arteries. It just gives him something to compare against. It doesn’t tell him when it is going to finally say: “Ok, I’m done. I’m going to stop working now.” No test is going to tell him, or me, that.

Interestingly enough, despite my having a host of risk factors, no doctor can tell you precisely which one triggered my heart disease. Sorry, they just know that statistically if you do x, y or c or you don’t do a, b or z, then they are more likely to find blocked arteries in your body and other health problems. Of course, statistically, you can NOT do x, y or c and do a, b or z, and you still can have heart problems. Amazing how that works. Maybe we humans ain’t all that smart after all.

Now, it seems that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are one of the biggest culprits in the anthropomorphic climate change models. What would you say if some scientists told you that the US is pumping out less CO2 now than it was 20 years ago?

US CO2 emissions at 20 year low

My goodness, maybe the US has been doing something right after all.

However, my point would be that if the US has reduced its carbon footprint so much and climate change still is happening doesn’t that call into question the current causes of climate change? I ain’t no scientist but it would seem to me that the evidence would point that way. You know, of course, that it is just possible that there are other, non-human-related, factors at play here.

I do get tired of our hubris that we think that just because we think, then the world must revolve around us. Just because we seem to be sentient, that we are in control.

As my old math teacher used to say: Apples and Oranges.

Maybe we need to stop thinking that we are in control and think more about coping with reality. I do that on a daily basis … not always fun, but it has kept me alive longer than the worst prognoses said I would live. And that makes me happy.

Of course, you can think you are in control. That is all right. You do have the right to think silly thoughts.

Covert orders?

President signed covert orders aiding Syrian rebels

Something tells me that people in the U.S. need to reexamine the definition of the word “covert” because it is obvious that when it comes to the American government, very little is covert. Definition of "Covert"

cov·ert (kvrt, kvrt, k-vûrt) adj.

1. Not openly practiced, avowed, engaged in, accumulated, or shown: covert military operations; covert funding for the rebels. See Synonyms at secret.

2. Covered or covered over; sheltered.

When something is being reported by practically every major news-reporting agency in the world … it is hard to argue that something is being kept a secret.

President Obama, apparently, sometime in the last year signed a “secret” intelligence “finding” (basically an executive order) authorizing American intelligence agencies covertly to provide aid and comfort (and presumably weapons, etc.) to the forces opposed to the Syrian regime. So much for doing anything secretly. But then again, it is not much of a surprise either.

Now, I have a problem with all this. You see, I am tired of my political leadership getting embroiled in various and sundry conflicts, uprisings, liberation movements, etc., especially in the Middle East. Sorry, but if I have learned anything in the last 25 years or so, it is regardless of whatever intentions the U.S. may have … it ain’t gonna work, especially if we are trying to do it on the QT.

Now, I am not so opposed to maybe passing ammunition and holding coats, but that is about as far as I am going to go right now. Still, I would hope that our esteemed Congress people would have enough sense to keep cool heads about them and do what is in the best interest of the country and not necessarily what is politically cool to do. Oops, what a fool am I am? Like that is ever going to happen in my lifetime or probably my grandchildren’s lifetimes.

Granted, President Assad of Syria is a pretty scummy character and probably ranks up there with our old friend Mr. Hussein over in Iraq. But we have been down that trail once, no need to try it again. Too many pacifists and progressives would get upset and we probably don’t have the troops right now to do it up right.

Of course, there are all sorts of reasons to be concerned about the outcome in Syria because it really will have a snowball effect in the whole region. Unfortunately for the U.S., very few of the outcomes are positive in relation to our interests.

Short of a direct attack on the U.S. (not just U.S. interests but the good old U.S. of A.) I very much doubt that the people who really need to be involved in the decision making process about what role the U.S. should be playing in the area (I.E. The U.S. Congress) will do anything but blather. Besides, it is election season, it is August (and all right and left thinking Congress people are going to flee the swamp that is the District of Columbia, despite air-conditioning), so it is going to be squawk season.

Still, I just wish some people either in D.C. or Arlington or McLean could keep their damn traps shut. It is really is annoying, from the perspective of an old soldier, to see these “leaks” about so-called “secrets”. I am just glad I am not on the tip of the spear, because their job is tough enough as it is without blowing bugles and beating the drums that they are there.

Wikileaks v. Syria

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/05/world/meast/uk-syria-wikileaks/index.html?hpt=hp_bn2
Julian Assange and his Wikileaks is back in the news. It seems that his group has posted a couple of million e-mails hacked from the Syrian government to expose how really nasty the Assad regime is/was and probably will be. It also exposes all those bad people who are dealing with Assad and his cronies.

And this guy is hiding out in the Paraguayan Embassy seeking asylum from the Brits and Swedes because he is afraid the Swedes MIGHT turn him over for prosecution in the US for dumping the raft of secret diplomatic communications and military documents from the US Government.

What is this guy drinking?

I mean, first he busts all the conditions he agreed to when he made bail in Britain after he was arrested on an international warrant from Sweden on alleged sexual misconduct. There is not warrant for his arrest in the US. In fact, at last check, the grand jury was still out on whether or not their would be any charges in that case. The military probably will symbolically “hang” the young idiot trooper who thought it would be cool to violate his oath and the UCMJ to dump a bunch of files to Wikileaks. But Mr. Assange probably doesn’t have all that much to fear from the US.

Now, let’s see: The Brits are pissed because this Australian jerk (although I think most Australians want to disown the fellow) is now definitely a law-breaker in the UK.

But the folks who really now will want his head on a Pike (HBO already did that with George W. Bush) will be the Syrians and all those business people in Europe who were fudging the books to deal with the Assad Regime despite sanctions. If you think the CIA is bad, they ain’t got nothing on these folks. It isn’t even a close race. In fact, they probably have taught the CIA a few tricks or so.

I hope the Paraguayan Embassy has a good security team … or Mister Assange does, if he ever opts to leave it in the future. I really would not be surprised if some pissed of person (non-US and non-CIA) ices him rather messily. This guy really is living in his own little nether world … and has no clue how really ugly and mean the big, bad world is out there.