Saturday, August 18, 2012

Blame America first

Iraq helps Iran skirt sanctions

Iran calls Israel an insult

Syrian airstrikes continue

China warns Japan over islands

North Korea threatens US

Politically incorrect guide to U.S. interests

I am always fascinated by those who blame the United States for all the woes in the world … as if the Americans had that much power. I am sorry, but superpower or not, the U.S. never has been in “control” of anything outside the U.S., much less control of events inside its own borders.

There are those who look at the conflicts around the world and say “Well, what are you going to do about it America?”

Whether it is the civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Sudan or Congo; or threatening conflicts between Japan and China, or the Chinese and Filipinos, or the Chinese and the Vietnamese, or the Indians and the Pakistanis or the Israelis versus Iran … or even the U.S. versus Iran, do you really think these conflicts are being triggered by remote control? Do you really believe that there is some nefarious group that is manipulating all these conflicts? Give me a break. The answer is much simpler than that: Nobody is in “control” or you can say everybody is in control. In each of these conflicts, there really is very little the U.S. – or you or me, for that matter – can do to influence their resolutions.

The problem is, as the problem has been throughout history, is that there are individuals – good, bad or indifferent – in each one of the above countries who is making guesses about what they can or cannot do and which would maybe result in an outcome that is to their benefit and the benefit of their country. Those guesses probably not all the educated, or educated so much that they still don’t know what they are doing.

In Syria, there are so many players playing so many angles who knows what will happen. I sure don’t, but I can tell you this: It will be a bloody mess, literally and figuratively.

In Iraq, despite eight years there and a significant contingent of American “advisors”, the Americans are not calling the shots and nobody is being “handled.” The Iraqis and their leadership are going to play the game to suit their own interests and not necessarily the country’s best interests.

In Sudan and Congo, the same metric is going down but with different players and, sorry folks, but the U.S. not only won’t, but can’t do anything to affect it.

The events in the South and East China Seas? You think Beijing or Tokyo or Manila or Jakarta or Hanoi really are going to jump when the U.S. says: “Ok, boys, everybody back in their corners.” Do think the North Koreans are going to stop blowing smoke about “sacred wars” if the U.S. would just sit down and talk to them like they were rational adults?

Like the U.S. is going to have a whole lot of influence over Pakistan and be able to tell it and its neighbor to stop rattling each other’s cage.

And Israel and Iran? Why does the Iranian leadership have to keep rattling their sabers? It just makes the Israelis rattle theirs. A friend of mine said everything would be all right if the Israelis would just settle their long-term problems with the Palestinians. Hello? What planet is he on? Maybe I am wrong, but I thought Bill Clinton came within inches of that goal in 2000, but Yasser Arafat walked out at the last minute. I am sorry, but compromise sometimes means accepting a 95 percent solution rather than a 100 percent solution.

As for the Israelis, I don’t like a lot of their policies, especially the settlement policies, but you know, I can halfway understand them. Even then, they gave up all the settlements in Gaza in a bid to trade land for peace and a fat lot that got them.

I know there are those who blame the Israelis for all the conditions in Gaza and the West Bank, but I think that is a red herring. It would seem, at least for Gaza, that Egypt has had as big a role, if not bigger role in what has happened in Gaza. You do know Egypt ruled Gaza for almost 20 years and still has a border with Gaza, with their own border guards on it. I suppose, if they had wanted, they could have flooded Gaza with humanitarian aid at any time over the last 60 years … but they didn’t and they probably won’t … at least not with any aid that would create a self-sustaining, functional economy. Same goes for Jordan with the West Bank.

Still, one has to remember - despite the announcements by the Iranians and others in the Muslim world - that the Holocaust DID happen. Six million European Jews and about four million others were systematically murdered by the German Nazis. A good chunk of the Israelis are descendants of the survivors and they have decided never again.

You see, no one took Mister Hitler seriously when he wrote about and said what he planned to do. The Israelis are not about to make the same mistake twice. When you have somebody saying they want to see you eradicated because you are an insult to the world and others say they just want to wipe your nation off the map, then people with the Israelis’ background tend to take them at their word. Preemptive strikes usually work better than second strikes, basically because you often can take out much of the other side’s abilities to do any damage.

If you think the U.S. is about to be able to call the shots for the Israelis, then you are sadly mistaken. Yes, the U.S. is their bosom buddy and has helped them for years, but in the end, the Israelis are going to do what they think is in the best interest of their own survival (with the minimum of acceptable losses and casualties on their side).

Granted, the Iranians (one really should call them Persians to understand the length of their history) should be proud of their heritage, but they also should understand that in the 21st century, the empires of centuries and millennia ago are not about to be resurrected. Unfortunately, the ayatollahs and IRGC never got the meme.

The whole thing points to the probable future that it is going to get awfully violent around the world, whether it is Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East or Eurasia. And don’t think North America or Europe is immune, because they are not.

In the United States we have seen what appears to be an uptick in political violence. It almost makes one dread what will happen this fall.

Whatever happens, please try to remember: The Americans are not in control. The multinational corporations are not in control. The Zionist Conspiracy is not in control.

NO ONE person, entity, group or thing is in control. And with all those actors and factors, mistakes are going to be made and my bet is that things are going to get really, really ugly.

Sorry to be such a wet blanket, but the old saying is “if you want peace, prepare for war” and maybe you will get lucky.

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