Thursday, December 31, 2015

Random thoughts and readings for the end of 2015

Note: Many of these blocks of text actually are the link to a story or a web page that I am commenting on. Click on that text and it will take you to the page being referred to.

 Once more into the breach, as I say, and this to wrap up 2015 ... it is going to be a long one  ... well because there is a long list of links on my topics notebook page that either need to go in the bit bucket or beg to be commented on. So, having said that, lets us begin.

First, we will start with the Far East and the challenges it faces, especially to the US military:

Could or would China attack the US? This interesting article looks at the parallels between China now and Imperial Japan of the early 20th Century. It offers a warning, and something that should be at least considered.

If a war with China did start, how might it? A look at a number of concepts that could alter the current balance and lead to a conflict that leads to shooting war. Things to think about when reviewing who you want to sit in the Oval Office in 2017.

This mid-December incident illustrates some of the conditions that leave one wondering about the Western Pacific.

Yet another view of the same incident. At what point does a "provocation" lead to an incident?

This article looks how "war" in the 21st Century is morphing away from the centuries-old European Westphalian concept of state on state conflict. Whether it is in the South China sea, the Middle East, Africa, or Ukraine ... the definition of what is "war" and how you fight one is becoming murky. The question is how do we (as a nation) clarify that grayness and how far are we willing to go in response to it?

The US military, long a leader in "cyber warfare" looks to build a more "offensive" cyber capability after a period of focusing on defense because of infiltrations that demonstrate our own weaknesses. Is this the way we should go? Is the old axiom that the best defense remains a good offense? Or does that offend your sensibilities?

This essay presents a case for prudence and caution in the use of American military power, much as the author says President Obama has done. It is something to think about as we look to this year's election: What role do you see as the proper one in global affairs for the US, its military, its power in its various forms?

 This article sums up the challenge facing the US in a nutshell ... answers anyone?

This essay poses an interesting dilemma ... and I am not sure but if the officers so involved are that political, it would not be a bad thing for them to leave the service. At the same time, as I read the article, I was struck that is sounded suspiciously like cafeteria talk ... and we all know where that goes.

Another article identifying some of the issues ... but in a sense short on solutions ... yet, it is correct in that what is happening is more toward the beginning of the play rather than near the final acts.

As we go through 2016, here are some suggestions of stories to watch as the conflicts in the Middle East run their courses

In this essay, Victor David Hanson illustrates the role human nature and history play in the fight against ISIS and how the Obama Administration seems to be so clueless about both.

Is this the beginning of the infamous "mission creep", or just the next step. Yes, Virginia, American soldiers are fighting ISIS in close combat ... aka Boots on the Ground

And for you airpower solves everything, there always is this reminder of its limitations. And yes, people do die from "friendly fire" because no fire is friendly. No weapon system is perfect and sometimes, especially when working with "allies" target identification is a bitch.

When it comes to integrating women in combat units ... well, at least the Special Operators are not afraid to let their views known ... however politically incorrect ... and useless ... it may be ... get ready guys, the steamroller is a coming and the train has left that station.

There is some validity to this view - in my own humble view and personal experience - but the real test is if the DOD starts making women register for the draft.

The problem with most people is that they think the terms battleship and warship are interchangeable ... but in Navy parlance, they aren't. A warship merely is a ship designed to go war and fight various missions. A battleship designates a specific class of warship that is designed to take heavy punishment while dealing out even heavier punishment. The US, nor has any other navy in the world, has not build a true battleship since World War II. We have opted to sacrifice armor and survivability for speed and firepower from missiles. None of today's warships are built to take heavy punishment from any other ship or even shore and air based threats. The object is to duck and weave, bob and jab, and basically make the other guy think you are somewhere you ain't. Such is the case with the Zumwalt destroyers, of which (maybe) only three will be built.
 I sometimes wonder how far up their derrieres some of the Regular Army brass have their heads ... but this truly is a bad idea. Speaking as someone who spent many years in the National Guard, this is a job killer. But then, I remember Persian Gulf War, and how unprepared (really) RA units were and how they were blessed with having months to hone up their skills in the desert.

 This is not necessarily a bad concept ... as it could help keep the lineage going on many a proud and fine unit. It also might teach some in the RA that maybe those weekend soldiers are not quite bad as they thought.
 
 This just illustrates how silly some people can be. OK, Americans flunk geography. I wonder how many people around the world think there really is a Gotham City?

There is a lesson here, with plenty of references for additional reading, that those who aspire to leadership should learn ... history always is a good place to start from when trying to analyze and form a strategy ... it helps form the basis for the questions you should ask and what tools you should ask for.

The take-away I have from this column is that we all should understand and realize that the choice of words used to describe an issue color the discussion and expose biases that otherwise would seem to be hidden. In those biases are the seeds that either help or destroy the writer's credibility. The absolute classic example is the debate over abortions. Pro-life, pro-choice, anti-abortion, murderers and killers of human life ... human, fetus, collection of cells ... the words that are used define which side a person is on.

 A very interesting discussion about personhood ... such as when is a person to be counted for political reasons, like apportionment of legislative bodies or for voting in an election. Are elections to be among those persons who are citizens of the political division - nation, state, county, city, township, village, district, etc. - or merely a resident, with a resident not necessarily meeting the standards of citizenship or who may be barred from voting by law and a judgment of a court. Where do you stand? This is important because we will have to decide where millions of illegal immigrants fit into this equation as well as legal immigrants who are not citizens. 

This is an interesting argument against the progressive view that the state should replace the individual when it comes to making choices ... and make no doubt, it is the progressive view that experts and the state can better make choices than you can, even though we each are quite flawed and in many cases quite ignorant.

Professor Hanson offers a interesting question ... what if the next president - say Donald Trump - acts like our current one? Will the mass media give him a pass or will they savage him at every turn?

A warning to the Republicans, people on the "right" and conservatives and libertarians: Be wary of candidates touting solutions that exceed their constitutional authority. We already have had seven years (going on eight) of that ... do we really want any more?

I think the point here is that everybody really just wants a benevolent despot to run the country - any country. One that doesn't really mess with the individual and lets the individual live their lives, as he or she wants, in reasonable peace and civility among neighbors. Unfortunately, it is not a good or realistic option and reflects that for the most part, people don't care who the tax collector is, just as long as he doesn't mess with his rice bowl.

a thoughtful take on "secular creationists" ... and where the concept goes astray and becomes a costly failure

And then there are those who think the world's problems are all the fault of Caucasian Northern Europeans ... sometimes I wonder what rock these people live under that they are so blind to history around the world, on every continent and with every culture, race or linguistic group.

And then there is this rebuttal ... which I think is fairly appropriate

I found this an pretty good essay and explanation of what the US Constitution really says about race ... granted, it isn't what you probably expected.

Just so you know ... I think this guy is spot on ... but then the soothsayers, crystal ball gazers, market analysts, pundits, pollsters and all the others don't have a real clue ... and we will just have to live through tomorrow, and the next day and the next, etc., etc., to really find out.

In a sense, this essay points out that for American Muslims there is a generational clash evolving, as it has with every immigrant group over the last two centuries. The question is whether the cultural assimilation will have any impact or will be still be faced with the cultural conflict.

 Another essay by Victor Hanson. This one on the president's view of bitter clingers ... or is the president one of those himself, bitterly clinging to his sense of victimhood that never really existed to the extent he claims.

This is a cautionary tale on how 3D printing is going to change the world ... economically, socially, politically. It is going to happen folks, so brace yourself for it.

Apparently this hack was done by a "good guy" who was probing defenses and found a major hole in the US cyber security effort ... it just shows how much information lies in collected databases on servers around the nation, if not the world. All of it, ultimately, is hackable because it is humans who program the machines to provide the defenses.

I know the dangers of "free speech" but I find this discussion absolutely terrifying ... I am an absolutist when it comes to the First Amendment and am leery of any government or political leader trying to tamper or temper those dangers

I have a major problem with this alternative to the current Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act - Obamacare as we come to know and love it. It assumes certain things about the role of the FEDERAL government that I find extremely wrong, philosophically, politically and pragmatically.

This is a very interesting discussion on the role Christian faith and beliefs should play in foreign policy for the US. Very thought provoking and worth reading.

I would respectfully disagree with this author in that snowflakes, and individuals in social contexts, in their uniqueness provide a demonstration of a creator ... the force behind the natural world.

I found this piece entertaining ... because it is correct in so many ways ... particularly the part of politics sucking and politicians standing in muck and mud

Yet another article by Professor Hanson, discussing how our president seems to have a fundamental lack of understanding of human nature and the role credible deterrence plays in the home and on the world stage.

Liberty? What does it mean? A short essay for you to think about it and what it means.

Another article on the power of words ... and how they control the discussion on things like strategy

A rather incomplete article, but it serves a very good purpose of pointing out that ISIS has many dimensions and facets, which make it a challenge for those of us looking at it through our Western Occidental prisms have difficulty understanding.

And then there is the Saudi grand mufti who says this ... no wonder the Middle East is such a mess.

Leave it to John Stossel to give the end of a the year review an optimistic and uplifting view ... and all in all, you know, he pretty much is correct.

AND next to last, there is this anonymous rant: OH YEAH! Sorry, but I agree with it.

And finally, as you sit there nursing your latest hangover ... consider this woman's problem. I have heard about this condition before and it involved a Chinaman and candy bars ... but that was long ago and far away when I was but a young and innocent naif living in Southern California.

And if you actually have read all the way down to here, I congratulate you on your perseverance and willingness to put up with my ramblings. But I have cleared the decks and now it is time to go share a drink of sparkling wine with my beautiful and wonderful wife as we ring in the New Year. I hope you have a prosperous and satisfying one.



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