Sunday, November 24, 2013

The devil always is in the details.

The fine print will tell the tale

Good news: P5+1 have reached a deal of some sorts with Iran over its nuclear program.

This is good news, I hope, but the skeptic in me says the devil will be in the details and also to question why now?

If indeed the first reports are correct and if indeed Iran agrees to curtail its uranium enrichment efforts and to forego its heavy water nuclear power reactor capable of generating plutonium, then the question becomes why agree now?

The agreement as announced 11/24 is only for six months. Why not longer?

It is said to be a first step; a first step to what?

Assuming that the UN atomic inspectors can get their act together and logistically put themselves on the ground in place and doing whatever it is that they plan to do without restriction from Iran, is it realistic to expect they will be able to do that tomorrow, or next week or even next month? And then, if nothing is signed in six months, they have to pull out? Are the Iranians not going to debate the ground rules for the inspectors?

Maybe I am being cynical but given that the Iranian top leadership was saying just last week that stopping their enrichment programs was show-stopper, why would they agree now to limit their program, and just let the machines already in place not go on line.

OK, I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now. I do hope we in the West are not being snookered again, although I suspect we are, and I hope that in six months that Secretary of State John Kerry and President Barack Obama will be able to report that even more progress has been made and verifiable measures are in place that will prevent the Iranian Republican Guard Corps from brandishing nuclear weapons next year.

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