My take on the Ukraine situation

Nato warns that Russia is risking Europe's peace and security - Telegraph



My take on the Ukrainian crisis (subject to being overtaken by events after 2 March 2014) is that there will be no general war, Russia will gain de facto control of the Crimea and east of the Dnieper River. It will basically be Czechoslovakia  in 1938, but without Baldwin proclaiming peace in our time.



First, despite what the progressives and those believers in the idea that man has evolved so much in the 21st Century that rationality, diplomacy and negotiations can resolve all conflicts and that leaders today's major powers will not use military force to achieve their geopolitical aspirations, the world really isn't like that ... and that 19th century vision of power politics that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry thinks isn't flying really does happen to be the way of humankind. Sorry, Mr. Heinz, but people really haven't changed their spots.



Now, having said that:



President Obama has pretty much said that whatever happens in the Ukraine is not of any concern of the US. The Europeans maybe; the Russians probably; and the Ukrainians definitely. Despite all the bluster that Putin and the Russians are violating X number of international laws, Y number of international agreement and basically being pigs about the situation, Obama really has no stomach to do much more than sputter and Putin knows that.



Secondly, the Europeans - whether through the EU or NATO - aren't about to do anything other than bluster either. Why? Because they don't have the power to do much, at least not militarily, and Russia does have its hand on the value to the natural gas that fuels much of Europe's energy needs.



Third, the UN ain't gonna do squat. The Security Council is absolutely powerless because anything it tries to do will be blocked by the Russians with their veto power.



Fourth, even if Obama got beyond just blustering, what could the US do to help defend or prevent the dismemberment of the Ukraine? Zip, zero, zilch. Hell, the progressives have been so busy for the last five or six years eviscerating US military capabilities (the peace dividend from ending the Iraq debacle and the soon-to-be Afghan debacle to fund Obamacare) that the US has no forces in any position to take on the Russians, short of a nuclear attack and nobody thinks the Ukraine is worth having nukes hitting US cities (not even Washington, D.C., or Detroit and maybe Chicago which probably would come out better in that case). With no conventional options on the table, the assurances we, the Brits and others gave the Ukraine that their territorial integrity as defined at the fall of the Soviet Empire would be honored if it gave up its Soviet nuclear weapons, basically are worthless.



So, there will be a media feeding frenzy for the next few days/weeks/months and then the Ukraine effectively will be dismembered with a portion - like happened in near by Georgia six years ago - basically being ceded back to the Russian Empire.



And people think the Americans think in imperial terms. Give me a break.